Geocoding and spatio-temporal modeling of long-term PM2.5 and NO2 exposure in the Mexican Teachers´ Cohort

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Karla Cervantes-Martínez
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5480-5750
Horacio Riojas-Rodríguez
Carlos Díaz Avalos
Hortensia Moreno-Macías
Ruy López-Ridaura
Dalia Stern
Jorge Octavio Acosta-Montes
José Luis Texcalac-Sangrador

Abstract

Epidemiological studies on air pollution in Mexico often use the environmental concentrations of pollutants as measured by monitors closest to the home of participants as exposure proxies, yet this approach does not account for the space gradients of pollutants and ignores intra-city human mobility. This study aimed to develop high-resolution spatial and temporal models for predicting long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 in ~16,500 participants from the Mexican Teachers’ Cohort study. We geocoded the home and work addresses of participants, and used secondary source information on geographical and meteorological variables as well as other pollutants to fit two generalized additive models capable of predicting monthly PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations during the 2004-2019 period. Both models were evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation, and showed high predictive accuracy with out-of-sample data and no overfitting (CV-RMSE=0.102 for PM2.5 and CV-RMSE=4.497 for NO2). Participants were exposed to a monthly average of 24.38 (6.78) mg/m3 of PM2.5 and 28.21 (8.00) ppb of NO2 during the study period. These models offer a promising alternative for estimating PM2.5 and NO2 exposure with high spatio-temporal resolution for epidemiological studies in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area.

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Author Biographies

Karla Cervantes-Martínez, National Institute of Public Health

Center for Population Health Research

Horacio Riojas-Rodríguez, National Institute of Public Health

Center for Population Health Research

Carlos Díaz Avalos, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

Instituto de Matemáticas Aplicadas y Sistemas

Hortensia Moreno-Macías, Metropolitan Autonomous University

 Economics Department

Ruy López-Ridaura, Ministry of Health

National Center for Preventive Programs and Disease Control

Dalia Stern, CONACyT - National Institute of Public Health

Center for Population Health Research

Jorge Octavio Acosta-Montes, Autonomous University of Chihuahua

Nursing and Nutrition Faculty

José Luis Texcalac-Sangrador, National Institute of Public Health

Center for Population Health Research

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