Air quality in the Metropolitan Zone of the Valley of Puebla: Comparative evaluation of CAMS and persistence forecasts

Abstract

Background on air quality in the Metropolitan Zone of the Valley of Puebla shows that suspended particles smaller than 10 micrometers (PM₁₀) and smaller than 2.5 micrometers (PM_2.5) represent a health risk. Puebla’s automatic air quality monitoring system measures PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 at five stations in the municipalities of Puebla and Coronango. These measurements allow for determining the Air and Health Index according to the NOM-172-SEMARNAT-2019 standard for these pollutants. The advancement of global pollutant modeling techniques represents an opportunity for air quality management in areas with scarce terrestrial measurements. However, it is necessary to validate global forecasts with ground measurements from georeferenced monitoring stations to reduce uncertainties and determine reliability. The Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) forecast allows atmospheric pollution exploration processes in the study region. This study presents an analysis of the CAMS forecast against the Persistence forecast. The results show that the persistence forecast performs better than the CAMS forecast in general, both for PM₁₀ and for PM_2.5. However, using the CAMS forecast for a preliminary evaluation of the prediction of PM_2.5 is feasible due to its acceptable values in the comparison criteria of the dichotomous statistics ACCURACY, probability of detection (POD), false alarm rate (FAR), probability of false detection (POFD), success ratio (SR), threat score (TS), equitable threat score (ETS), Heidke skill score (HSS), and odds ratio skill score (ORSS). This work provides valuable insights to both the population and decision-makers, aiding in the enhancement of air quality management and public health strategies.