The future of Mexican beans’ wild relatives: Identifying conservation areas

Abstract

Crop wild relatives underpin crop improvement yet remain under-conserved as climate change accelerates. We developed a climate-robust, uncertainty-aware framework to prioritize in situ conservation of bean’s wild relatives (Phaseolus) in Mexico, a global center of origin and diversification. We compiled occurrence data for 44 taxa and modeled climatic suitability for 36 taxa using an ensemble of seven algorithms; sparsely sampled, range-restricted taxa were incorporated using buffered occurrences. Projections spanned current climate and mid-century futures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, using contrasting “storyline” GCMs. We mapped climate stability (macro-refugia) and high-risk areas, and implemented systematic conservation planning with zonation for each climate zone, explicitly accounting for model uncertainty and favoring connectivity between present and future suitable areas. Spatial prioritizations were statistically invariant across GCMs, scenarios, and timeframes; therefore, summaries focus on RCP 8.5 (2040-2070). Macro-refugia concentrate in the Eje Neovolcánico Transmexicano, Sierra Madre Oriental, Sierra Madre del Sur, western Oaxaca, and Chiapas; high-risk priorities cluster in Sierra Madre del Sur, Balsas Depression, Baja California Sur, and parts of Chiapas and the Sierra Madre Occidental. Efficiency curves show strong complementarity: prioritizing ~5% of national territory captures ~30% of species’ ranges; 17% captures ~50%; 30% captures ~70%. Many priorities intersect existing protected areas, yet substantial opportunities remain outside them. Our workflow yields transparent, reproducible maps to guide climate-informed connectivity, community-based reserves, and targeted seed-bank enrichment. More broadly, this transferable approach supports safeguarding Crop wild relatives in other centers of origin, aligning biodiversity conservation with long-term food security under rapid climatic change.