Statistics of tropical cyclone landfalls along the Mexican coasts, 1965-2024

Abstract

Statistics were generated for tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall along the Mexican coast during 1965-2024 using the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). Monthly, annual, and decadal cumulative events were calculated and disaggregated by TC category according to the Saffir-Simpson scale and oceanic basin (Atlantic and Pacific). Additionally, the relationship between TC landfalls and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was analyzed. In Mexico, most TC landfalls (66%) originated in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) basin. Although the total number of ETP systems making landfall shows no significant trend, the number of major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) making landfall shows a significant increase during the study period, particularly over the last two decades. In contrast, along the Atlantic Mexican coast, the total number of TC landfalls has increased in recent years, while major hurricane landfalls do not show a significant trend. Landfalls associated with TCs originating within the Gulf of Mexico have also increased. Regarding the relationship with natural climate oscillations, a positive correlation was found between ENSO and major hurricane landfalls in the ETP. On the Atlantic side, years characterized by La Niña or neutral ENSO phase conditions combined with a negative PDO and a positive AMO phase tend to exhibit higher TC landfalls on Mexican coasts. Conversely, during El Niño conditions combined with a negative PDO, TC landfalls tend to decrease, particularly during a negative AMO phase.