A system-level assessment of climate and human-driven pressures on the Gulf of California using fuzzy cognitive maps

Abstract

The Gulf of California (GC) is a socio-ecological system exposed to interrelated climate-driven and anthropogenic stressors. Understanding how these pressures propagate is essential for assessing vulnerability and informing environmental management under uncertainty. In this study, we developed a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) to evaluate the influence of climate change and human activities and to diagnose system-level responses. The model was derived from peer-reviewed literature and refined through literature-based classification and weighting of causal relationships. Simulations were conducted in a virtual laboratory to explore system behavior under two complementary scenarios: (i) a baseline scenario excluding climate change effects, used to isolate the influence of anthropogenic pressures, and (ii) a climate change scenario. Additional minimum- and maximum-weight simulations were performed to evaluate model robustness. The FCM framework integrated environmental, socio-economic, and climatic variables within a structure capable of representing indirect effects, nonlinear relationships, and cascading interactions. Results indicate that rising temperatures, fishing pressure, and coastal pollution act as dominant stressors that intensify ecosystem degradation. Simultaneous deterioration across system components reflects high interconnectedness and limited resilience. Climate change amplifies feedback mechanisms, accelerating trajectories toward more severe ecological and economic outcomes. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the main vulnerability patterns remain consistent across a broad range of weight values. This study provides a diagnosis of the GC under climate and human pressures, highlighting pathways that shape vulnerability. The FCM approach offers insights for identifying key stressors and intervention points and provides a transferable framework for socio-ecological systems facing interrelated climate-driven and anthropogenic pressures.