RISK EVALUATION OF WATER CONSERVANCY IN A PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECT BASED ON GREY FUZZY THEORY

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Bo Wang
Nan Shi
Fuqiang Wang
Xiangtian Nie

Resumen

In this paper, a quantifiable method for risk evaluation of water conservancy ina public-private partnership (PP) PPP project is presented. Firstly, according to the characteristics of water conservancy PPP project, a risk evaluation index was determined by Delphi method and literature collection method; secondly, the weight of risk evaluation indexes were determined by rank correlation analysis; thirdly, based on grey fuzzy theory, a grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was constructed, and uncertain grey and fuzzy contents were transformed into values that can be accurately measured, which provided a basis for managers to make decisions. Finally, the grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was applied to Fendou Reservoir, a water conservancy PPP project, and it proved to be reasonable and scientific.

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