Implementation and applications of chaotic oscillatory based neural network for wind prediction problems

K. M. KWONG, F. W. TEE, J. N. K. LIU, P. W. CHAN

Abstract

Wind shear, sudden change in the wind direction and speed, is a familiar hazard to aviation as well as a complex and hard-to-predict phenomenon. The causes of wind shear may be different in different locations. In some places it is caused by microbursts, viz. localized columns of sinking air brought by thunderstorms, while in other places wind shear may result from mesoscale weather phenomena. Thus, algorithms and techniques used to predict wind shear caused by microbursts, as in Wolfson et al. (1994), will not be applicable at an airport where wind shear and turbulence arise from larger-scale but local conditions. This paper presents the implementation and applications of chaotic oscillatory-based neural networks (CONN) for predicting sea breeze and wind shear arising from mesoscale weather phenomenon at the Hong Kong International Airport. Using historical local data provided by the Hong Kong Observatory, we show from simulations that CONN is able to forecast the short-term wind evolution and even wind shear events with a reasonable level of accuracy.

Keywords

Chaotic oscillator; neural network; wind shear; forecast

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