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The following estimates analyse human bioclimatic conditions due to climate change in three time horizons, as suggested by Article 2 of the Paris Agreement. Each scenario corresponds to an increase in the global average temperature (∆T) of 1 ºC, 1.5 ºC and 2 ºC, respectively. The measurements of residential electricity consumption for air conditioning were made in 30 metropolitan areas of Mexico with at least half a million inhabitants in 2010. Bioclimatic conditions also included estimates of the effects of urban heat islands (UHI). Use of heating will decrease and, in some cases, disappear, while the need for cooling will increase. Electricity consumption due to cooling is expected to increase in Mexicali, Reynosa-Río Bravo (on the border with the United States), Cancún, Villahermosa, and Veracruz (on the shores of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico). Urban areas like Toluca, Pachuca, Xalapa, San Luis Potosí, and Puebla-Tlaxcala used little or no energy for cooling in the second decade of the 21st century but will need to do so halfway through the century.
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