Comparison of two air quality models in complex terrain near seashore

Abstract

Air pollution is the most important environmental problem in Zonguldak, Turkey due to excessive coal combustion and thermal power plant emissions. The city center is located on a complex terrain near the Black Sea shore. There exist some previous studies about PM₁₀ pollution in this area, but none of them is related to the spatial distribution of the pollutant. This air quality modeling study aims to fill this gap in the literature. Firstly, a PM₁₀ emission inventory has been prepared for point, line, and area sources for the year 2011, when bituminous coal was the principal fuel for domestic heating in houses and to generate electricity in thermal power plants, therefore particulate matter (PM₁₀) was the leading air pollutant. Emission inventory calculations revealed that 2710.2 t of PM₁₀ have been emitted to the atmosphere from all sources in the study area. Then, the air quality modeling has been performed for PM₁₀ by using two air quality models: AERMOD and CALPUFF. According to the modeling results, PM₁₀ pollution levels may pose a health threat to the inhabitants of Zonguldak. The maximum PM₁₀ concentrations predicted by the CALPUFF model were higher than that of AERMOD. Predicted values plus background concentration were validated against the PM₁₀ measurements by using fractional bias, index of agreement, geometric mean bias, and geometric mean-variance. According to the model performance analysis, CALPUFF showed slightly better performance as compared to AERMOD.