Population growth in Mexico and its impact on mitigation components of nationally determined contributions

Abstract

By 2050, most of the population in Mexico will be between 44 and 50 years old. By 2100, the population is expected to decrease to 116 million, 9% less than in 2020. Mexico recently ratified its commitment to face the planetary climate crisis by updating its nationally determined contribution, increasing its goal of reducing greenhouse gases from 22% to 35% by 2030. The main goal of this article is to estimate carbon emissions in 2018 (pre-pandemic conditions) of selected mitigation components and compare them with estimated values for 2030, considering the population variation under a business-as-usual scenario. If growth takes place at an exponentially compounded rate, this projection exercise shows that by 2030, the transport sector (private and public) could reduce its CO₂ emissions by 21%, the residential sector will increase its CO₂ emissions by 4.1%, and the municipal waste sector would increase its methane emissions by 10%. It is advisable to quantify the differentiated impact of climate change on the lives of diverse population groups, and after evaluating the effectiveness of solutions that reduce the exposure of these groups to climate change, to enhance their role as agents of climate action in terms of decarbonization and/or resilience to its effects.