Satellite-based analysis of climate oscillations: Implications for precipitation in an arid watershed in Mexico
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Abstract
Climate oscillations are known to have an important influence on weather patterns across the world. While the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been well documented, there is a scarcity of studies examining the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This study uses satellite data to confirm that ENSO significantly influences precipitation in the Nazas-Aguanaval watershed from October to March, as evidenced by Spearman correlation coefficients. In contrast, the PDO influence is registered during specific months (January, March, November and December), while AMO impacts precipitations during April-June, November, and December. These results were corroborated using ANOVA, reinforcing the influence of ENSO and indicating a limited impact of PDO and AMO on this watershed. Finally, a linear model was developed to estimate monthly precipitation anomalies based on the phase of these three indices for the different sub-basins. Notably, monthly precipitation anomalies ranged between 140% and –78% in dry months. Our results demonstrate the influence of climate oscillations in precipitation in the Nazas-Aguanaval watershed and the usefulness of satellite data for conducting these analyses. Likewise, we set a starting point for investigating the implications of climate oscillation phases for water management and drought disaster prevention.
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