Analysis of extreme precipitation in eastern China from 1960 to 2020 and future projections

Abstract

This study analyzes extreme precipitation in eastern China over the past 60 years through climatology and trend detection, with future projections using 10 indices. Data from 1310 meteorological stations and 20 CMIP6 models were employed to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of these indices from 1961 to 2020 during summer, both regionally and across eight major river basins. Key findings include: (1) the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation generally decreases from south to north and east to west. High-value centers for extreme precipitation are found south of the Yangtze River, while the maximum consecutive wet days decline from the southeast coast inland. (2) Extreme summer precipitation in eastern China increased over six decades, with intensity, 1-day max, heavy, extreme heavy precipitation, and very heavy rain days rising at 0.03, 0.11, 0.22, 0.13 mm yr^–1, and 0.02 d yr^–1, respectively. Trends show growth in the Yangtze River Basin and the northeast, but declines in the Hai and Yellow River basins, with decreases up to 0.50 mm yr^–1. (3) Multi-model ensemble simulations reliably capture summer extreme precipitation trends, indicating that by 2060, heavy and extreme precipitation amounts will increase by up to 10% under SSP-1.26. Higher carbon emissions will further accelerate this increase, particularly in the southeast rivers, the Pearl River, and the Yangtze River basins. These results provide important references for predicting extreme precipitation in eastern China.