Recent experiments on monthly weather prediction with the Adem Thermodynamic Climate Model, with especial emphasis in Mexico

JULIAN ADEM, ALFREDO RUÍZ, V. MANUEL MENDOZA, RENÉ GARDUÑO, VÍCTOR BARRADAS

Abstract

A revised version of the Adem Thermodynamic Model is used to make mean monthly predictions of temperature and precipitation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. The initialization data are the sea surface and 700 mb temperatures in the previous month. Predictions for the period December 1981 to November 1983 were carried out and verified over the Mexican Republic. The results show some skill in the prediction of temperature and precipitation anomalies. The experiments show that the ocean temperatures play an important role in the predictions, and it may be suggested that above normal temperatures in the near Pacific Ocean regions and in the Gulf of Mexico may produce below normal precipitation anomalies in Mexico and possibly favour a drought situation. Sensitivity experiments on the change of surface albedo due to changes in vegetation, show important regional variations in temperature and precipitation and therefore, suggest the necessity of its incorporation in the model for monthly climate prediction in this region.A DRUOGHT

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