A short term prediction model for surface ozone at southwest part of Mexico valley

J. L. BRAVO, M. T. DÍAZ, CARLOS GAY, J. FAJARDO

Abstract

Mexico City is located in a valley in the tropical zone with high intensity of total solar radiation; it has poor wind circulation and a great deal of industrial and transportation activity, as a consequence of this it has a serious problem with air pollution. Ozone is representative of total atmospheric oxidants and of air pollution In this work a multiplicative model is proposed and adjusted to 3 years of daily observations at the Pedregal de San Angel Station located at the Southwest part of Mexico's Valley. The importance of some common meteorological parameters in the explanation of daily variance is evaluated. 50% of the total variance is explained with total solar radiation and the previous day ozone concentration and 61% using all variables. This model could be useful in the prediction of ozone concentrations with help of a model to predict solar radiation and could be used in the establishment of criteria for environmental alerts.

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