Recent numerical experiments on three-months extended and seasonal weather prediction with a thermodynamic model

JULIAN ADEM, V. MANUEL MENDOZA, A. RUÍZ, E. E. VILLANUEVA URRUTIA, RENÉ GARDUÑO

Abstract

The Adem thermodynamic climate model (ATCM) has been adapted to carry out three-month extended and seasonal numerical weather predictions. The model uses the Northern Hemisphere NMC polar stereographic grid with 1977 points and a grid distance of 408.5 km. The performance of the model has been evaluated for the period February 1981 to November 1983, which includes the “El Nino” 1982-83, and more recently in a. real time basis for the “El Niño” period from June 1997 to August 1998 for Mexico. The results show good skill in predicting seasonally temperature and precipitation anomalies during this "El Nino" period, which also confirms the results for the “El Nino” 1982-83. During the whole period June 1997 to August 1998, the model predicted above normal air-temperature and below normal precipitation, in agreement with the observations, which corresponded to a severe persistent drought in Mexico that existed during that period. The results show that the ocean temperatures play an important role in the predictions, and it may be suggested that the above normal ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean regions contiguous to Mexico associated with “El Nino” produced the above normal surface air-temperature and the below normal precipitation possibly favoring the drought situation in Mexico.

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