Probabilistic description of rains and ENSO phenomenon in a coffee farm area in Veracruz, México

J. L. BRAVO, CARLOS GAY, CECILIA CONDE ÁLVAREZ, F. ESTRADA

Abstract

We have analyzed 37 years of climate data to describe the behavior of the precipitation and its relation with temperature in coffee farm areas in the central part of the state of Veracruz, particularly in the municipalities of Coscomatepec and Huatusco. We analyze the tendencies of the annual averages of the precipitation. Monthly averages of the precipitation are related with monthly averages of the temperature as useful parameters to predict intense rains. Gamma distributions were adjusted to total monthly precipitation to approximate the probability of given intervals. Gumbel distributions were adjusted to daily extreme values for monthly intervals and to monthly extremes for annual intervals. The relation of the precipitation and the El Niño/Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is analyzed. The influence of ENSO over the precipitation was found to be significant and translated as a reduction of the midsummer drought.

Keywords

Veracruz; coffee farms; precipitation trends; probabilistic forecast; enso influence; extremeprecipitation values

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