Multi-model ensemble forecasting of rainfall over Indian monsoon region

Abstract

In the present study, a method is proposed for the ensemble forecasting of rainfall over the Indian monsoon region based on daily outputs of four operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in the short-range time scale (up to 48 hours). The method is applied to prepare 24 and 48 hours ensemble forecastings of rainfall in the test mode daily during the summer monsoon 2006, using the rainfall prediction of constituent models with the pre-assigned grid point weights. The prediction skill of the ensemble forecasts is examined against observations and corresponding outputs of each constituent model. The intercomparison reveals that the method is capable to improve the forecast by taking the strength of each constituent model. The method has the potential for operational application.