Regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for future climate (2080-2099) using the MM5 Model. Mean, interannual variability and uncertainties

María Fernanda Cabré, Silvino Solman, Mario Núñez

Abstract

 

 Atmósfera 29(1), 35-60 (2016)

This work focuses on evaluating the climate change projected by the end of the 21st century under the SRES A2 emission scenario over southern South America using the regional model MM5. The model projects: (i) an increase of precipitation over central Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil during summer and fall; (ii) a decrease in precipitation over most of the study domain during winter and spring; (iii) an important decrease in precipitation over central and southern Chile, through the year. In general, the projected temperature increase depends on the season and the examined area; particularly, it is highest over tropical and subtropical latitudes in spring and over high latitudes in summer. The MM5 model projects: (i) an increase of the interannual precipitation variability of precipitation over central Argentina and Uruguay regardless the season; (ii) a slight decrease in interannual temperature variability over large extents of Argentina for summer and winter; (iii) a slight increase in interannual temperature variability at transition seasons; with highest values over central Chile in autumn and over north central Argentina in spring. From the reliability assessment of regional climate projections, it can be concluded that signal-to-noise ratio is high for temperature and low for precipitation. Therefore, the MM5 model is a useful tool in the generation of regional climate change scenarios of high resolution over southern South America, particularly for temperature, and is a starting point to perform studies related to impacts of climate change.

Keywords

Regional climate modeling; South America; climate change scenarios; uncertainties

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