Analysis of the simulated global temperature using a simple energy balance stochastic model

Efrain Moreles, Benjamín Martínez-López

Abstract

This work presents a study of the response of the simulated global temperature variability to additive and multiplicative stochastic parameterizations of heat fluxes, along with a description of the long-term variability in terms of simple autoregressive processes. The Earth’s global temperature was simulated using a globally averaged energy balance climate model coupled to a thermodynamic ocean model. It was found that simple autoregressive processes explain the temperature variability in the case of additive parameterizations; whereas in the case of multiplicative parameterizations, the description of the temperature variability would involve higher order autoregressive processes, suggesting the presence of complex feedback mechanisms originated by the multiplicative forcing. Also, it was found that multiplicative parameterizations produced a rich structure that emulates closely observed climate processes. Finally, a new approach to describe the stability in the steady state of a general one-dimensional stochastic system, through its potential function, was proposed. From an analytical expression of the potential function, further insight into the description of a stochastic system was provided.

Keywords

Temperature variability; stochastic parameterizations, autoregressive process; steady state; potential function

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