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Evaluation of WRF parameterizations for global horizontal irradiation forecasts: A study for Turkey

Selahattin Incecik, Serim Sakarya, Seyda Tilev, Abdullah Kahraman, Bülent Aksoy, Erhan Caliskan, Sema Topcu, Ceyhan Kahya, M. Talat Odman


This study deals with the evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model’s parameterization schemes when used for global horizontal irradiation (GHI) forecasts, to assess the feasibility of solar energy utilization. The study area is the southeastern Anatolia (SEA) region of Turkey, with favorable weather conditions for solar energy generation. The results indicate that the values in the hourly output of GHI in the model were overestimated for all configurations at all stations compared to observations. The relative mean bias error values at five stations for all configurations vary between 10-21% for clear-sky and 17-30% for partly-cloudy conditions. Similarly, the relative RMSE values at the five stations vary between 20-39% for clear sky and 41-70% for partly-cloudy conditions. However, there are noticeable differences among the various configurations of the WRF parameterizations.


WRF; parameterization schemes; sensitivity; global horizontal irradiation; energy forecasting

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