Evaluation of WRF parameterizations for global horizontal irradiation forecasts: A study for Turkey

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Selahattin Incecik
Serim Sakarya
Seyda Tilev
Abdullah Kahraman
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8180-1103
Bülent Aksoy
Erhan Caliskan
Sema Topcu
Ceyhan Kahya
M. Talat Odman

Abstract

This study deals with the evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model’s parameterization schemes when used for global horizontal irradiation (GHI) forecasts, to assess the feasibility of solar energy utilization. The study area is the southeastern Anatolia (SEA) region of Turkey, with favorable weather conditions for solar energy generation. The results indicate that the values in the hourly output of GHI in the model were overestimated for all configurations at all stations compared to observations. The relative mean bias error values at five stations for all configurations vary between 10-21% for clear-sky and 17-30% for partly-cloudy conditions. Similarly, the relative RMSE values at the five stations vary between 20-39% for clear sky and 41-70% for partly-cloudy conditions. However, there are noticeable differences among the various configurations of the WRF parameterizations.

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Author Biographies

Selahattin Incecik, Istanbul Teknik Universitesi, Ucak ve Uzay Bilimleri Fakultesi, Meteoroloji Muhendisligi Bolumu, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

Professor of Meteorology, Istanbul Technical University, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Department of Meteorological Engineering, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

Serim Sakarya, Istanbul Teknik Universitesi, Ucak ve Uzay Bilimleri Fakultesi, Meteoroloji Muhendisligi Bolumu, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

Graduate student, Istanbul Technical University, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Department of Meteorological Engineering, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

Seyda Tilev, Abu Dhabi Polytechnic, Department of Meteorology, P.O. Box 111499, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Senior Lecturer, Abu Dhabi Polytechnic, Department of Meteorology, P.O. Box 111499, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Abdullah Kahraman, Samsun Universitesi, Ballica Kampusu, Havacilik ve Uzay Bilimleri Fakultesi, 55420 Ondokuzmayis, Samsun, Turkey

Assistant Professor of Meteorology, Department of Meteorological Engineering, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Samsun University, 55420 Ondokuzmayis, Samsun, Turkey

Bülent Aksoy, Meteoroloji Genel Mudurlugu, Arastirma Daire Baskanligi, Kutukcu Ali Bey Cad. No:4 Kalaba, Ankara, Turkey.

Turkish State Meteorological Service, Department of Research, 06120, Kalaba, Ankara, Turkey

Erhan Caliskan, Industrial Development Bank of Turkey, 34427, Findikli, Istanbul, Turkey.

Turkiye Sınai Kalkinma Bankasi A.S.
Meclisi Mebusan Cad. 81 Findikli 34427 Istanbul

Sema Topcu, Istanbul Teknik Universitesi, Ucak ve Uzay Bilimleri Fakultesi, Meteoroloji Muhendisligi Bolumu, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

Professor of Meteorology, Istanbul Technical University, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Department of Meteorological Engineering, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

Ceyhan Kahya, Istanbul Teknik Universitesi, Ucak ve Uzay Bilimleri Fakultesi, Meteoroloji Muhendisligi Bolumu, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

Assistant Professor of Meteorology, Istanbul Technical University, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Department of Meteorological Engineering, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

M. Talat Odman, Principal Research Engineer, Department of Environmental Engineering, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, GA, USA.

Principal Research Engineer, Department of Environmental Engineering, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, GA, USA.

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