Crop yield simulations in Mexican agriculture for climate change adaptation

Abstract

Climate change is considered a serious threat to food security worldwide. In this study, yields of maize, beans, wheat, soybean, sorghum, barley and potato were modeled with 28 future climate change scenarios. Our results reduce the information gap that is frequently reported for Mexico and will contribute to better knowledge on spatial impact of climate change. We applied FAO AquaCrop model for 22 case studies located in 14 states of Mexico. Climate change scenarios were: CNRM, GFDL, HADGEM, MPI and Ensemble REA, with two radiative forcing concentrations (4.5 and 8.5 W m^–2) and three time horizons (2015-2039, 2045-2069, and 2075-2099). The results show decreases in yields of most of the case studies as a consequence of a decrease in the amount and distribution of precipitation. Maize yield in warm dry climates could decrease up to 84% in the most severe scenarios. Beans could decrease from 10 to 40% in the north of the country, while in the northwest a 15% decrease in wheat yield is predicted. Soybeans could benefit, with increases from 15 to 40%. Sorghum and potatoes are expected to decrease for all the case studies, while barley would have increases and decreases. The results suggest differentiated impacts according to crops and regions studied. We concluded that agriculture requires better focused strategies and policies (attention on crop and spatial distribution).