Performance of the WRF model with different physical parameterizations in the precipitation simulation of the state of Puebla

Abstract

In Mexico, intense rains generated by tropical cyclones, cold fronts, and mesoscale convective systems can cause floods and landslides, causing damage to social, service, economic and financial sectors, among others, leaving the population with fewer resources and in greater vulnerability. Given this scenario, disaster prevention has relevance in the civil protection agenda, which recognizes that it is essential to establish long-range strategies and programs focused on preventing and reducing their effects, beyond only paying attention to emergencies and disasters. The objective of this work is to evaluate the performance of the WRF model for the simulation of accumulated pluvial precipitation in 24 hours in the state of Puebla, considering 768 different combinations of physical parameters, compared to rain records of weather stations for the period from June 1 to August 20, 2017. In addition, as part of the research, optimal configurations are defined to obtain the best performance of the model at local and state levels.