Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean using the neural network model

Abstract

A neural network (NN) model is developed to predict the seasonal number of tropical cyclones (TCs) formed over the north Indian Ocean during the post-monsoon season (October, November, December). The frequency of TCs and the large scale climate variables derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset of resolution 2.5º • 2.5o have been analyzed for the period 1971-2013. Data for the years 1971-2002 have been used for the development of the model, which is tested with independent sample data for the years 2003-2013. Applying correlation analysis, five large-scale climate variables, namely geopotential height at 500 hPa, relative humidity at 500 hPa, sea level pressure, and zonal wind at 700 hPa and 200 hPa for the antecedent month September are selected as predictors. Based on some performance parameter statistics, the performance of the NN model is evaluated and the results are compared with the multiple linear regression (MLR) model. From the results it is inferred that the predicted tropical cyclone count by both models is very close to the actual counts for both periods. However, the NN model is found to be superior to the MLR model. This tropical cyclone prediction technique may be useful for operational prediction purposes.