A study of trends for Mexico City ozone extremes: 2001-2014

Sara Rodríguez, Gabriel Huerta, Hortensia Reyes

Abstract

We analyze trends of high values of tropospheric ozone over Mexico City based on data corresponding to the years 2001-2014. The data consists of monthly maxima ozone concentrations based on 29 monitoring stations. Due to the large presence of missing data, we consider the monthly maxima based on five well identified geographical zones. We assess time trends based on a statistical model that assumes that these observations follow an extreme value distribution, where the location parameter changes in time accordingly to a regression model. In addition, we use Bayesian methods to estimate simultaneously a zonal and an overall time-trend parameter along with the shape and scale parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. We compare our results to a model that is based on a normal distribution. Our analyses show some evidence of decaying ozone levels for the monthly maxima during the period of study.

Keywords

Trend analysis; GEV distribution; Mexico City ozone levels; Bayesian methods.

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